Nagpur :-No poll pundit or the so called experts could predict the Mahayuti Tsunami that swept the state. The one-sided election results have caught them by surprise and analysis of the outcome is still underway. Most predictions of poll pundits went haywire in the district too. Lokmat Times here gives a constituency-wise break up of the district in an attempt to analyse what people got wrong and why the votes swung in favour of the victorious candidates.
RAMTEK
Almost everybody had predicted a close fight between Shiv Sena MLA Ashish Jaiswal and Congress rebel Rajendra Mulak with most giving an edge to the latter. The satta bazar initially favoured Jaiswal but later predicted Mulak’s win by a thin margin. However, Jaiswal won handsomely by over 26,000 votes. The voting percentage here was very high. Locals say that reason for Mulak’s defeat was that his team mostly comprised people from Nagpur, many of whom did not have much idea of the constituency. On the other hand, Jaiswal’s team had tried and tested party workers who knew the villages like the back of their hand. Jaiswal told voters that while he lived in Ramtek and was easily accessible, Mulak lived in Nagpur and they would have to travel a long distance to meet their MLA. Jaiswal promoted himself as ‘bhoomiputra’ painting Mulak as an outsider. This appealed to voters and the election changed in the last two to three days. Mulak had a major disadvantage that he was contesting as an independent and not on the Congress symbol. This cost him quite a few votes.
SAONER
When BJP gave the ticket to Dr Ashish Deshmukh, most political experts did not take him seriously. However, as his campaign picked up momentum, experts predicted a close fight but with Congress candidate Anuja Kedar having an edge. Most people could not envisage that disqualified MLA Sunil Kedar’s wife could be defeated here. Kedar had ensured the victory of Ramtek MP Shyamkumar Barve in 2024 Lok Sabha elections with a big margin and also decimated the BJP in Nagpur Zilla Parishad elections some years ago. Kedar was thus too popular to be defeated. The satta bazar predicted an easy victory for Kedar right from the beginning and even after voting. However, voters of Saoner were extremely upset with Kedar due to his high-handed behaviour, lack of development in the constituency, and law and order situation. Another factor was that Kedar’s close aide Anil Wadpalliwar had filed a public interest litigation (PIL) in the High Court against the ‘Ladki Bahin’ scheme. There are about 90,000 beneficiaries of this scheme in the constituency. BJP leaders told voters that Kedar had filed a proxy petition through Wadpalliwar in every meeting. This incensed the beneficiaries and their family members. Due to all these factors, the Kedar camp became nervous and when voting took place their fears proved to be true as Deshmukh won by over 26,000 votes.
KATOL
Poll pundits had predicted a tough fight between Charan Singh Thakur of BJP and Salil Deshmukh of NCP (SP) initially. As campaigning progressed, experts started giving the edge to Thakur. Satta bazar predicted a Thakur victory with not a very high margin. On the last day of campaigning, Salil’s father Anil Deshmukh’s car was attacked. The popular perception is that Deshmukh allegedly stage-managed the incident to generate sympathy for his son, who was losing the election. Whether this is true or not is impossible to tell but it convinced the voters that Salil was losing the election and many NCP (SP) voters swung in favour of Thakur. Anil Deshmukh wanted to contest the election himself but Salil pressured him to let him contest instead. This had not gone down well with conservative voters, who perceived it as an assault on family values. In general there was anti-incumbency against the Deshmukh family and Salil’s move only made things worse. In the end, Thakur won by around 39,000 votes, which no one had predicted as voting percentage had reduced in this seat as compared to 2019.
UMRED
The seat witnessed a triangular fight and BJP rebel Pramod Gharde sank the ship of the party candidate Sudhir Parwe. Opinion was divided among pollsters as to whether Parwe or Congress candidate Sanjay Meshram would win. Satta bazar predicted a Parwe victory with a thin margin. However, BJP leader Kailash Vijayvargiya openly admitted even before polling that Parwe would lose. In the end, his assessment proved true as Meshram won by over 12,800 votes. Meshram polled over 85,000 votes while Parwe got 72,500 votes and Gharde secured over 49,000 votes.
KAMPTEE
The predictions about this seat were correct as most experts predicted an easy victory for BJP’s Chandrashekhar Bawankule. Congress leaders admitted in private that they had no chance of winning from this seat. Satta bazar too predicted an easy victory for Bawankule. The BJP leader did not disappoint all these people and won by close to 41,000 votes.
HINGNA
The story of this seat is similar to that of Kamptee. Everybody predicted an easy victory for sitting BJP MLA Sameer Meghe. Congress leaders admitted in private that NCP (SP) candidate Ramesh Bang had no chance of winning. Satta bazar too predicted an easy win for Meghe. In the end, the BJP MLA won by close to 79,000 votes, increasing his margin significantly as compared to 2019.
NAGPUR NORTH
Most poll pundits and the satta bazar had predicted an easy victory for sitting MLA Dr Nitin Raut of the Congress. Some journalists felt that Raut’s margin would go down because BSP candidate Manoj Sangole was a popular figure and would wean away Congress votes. Only a handful of journalists, however, believed that BJP candidate Dr Milind Mane stood any chance. In the end, the majority opinion proved true and Raut won easily by a margin of about 28,500 votes. Sangole flopped miserably and polled only about 12,500 votes.
NAGPUR WEST
The opinion was mixed about this seat. Some pollsters and satta bazar predicted an easy victory for sitting Congress MLA Vikas Thakre while others predicted a tough fight with some even predicting a victory for BJP candidate Sudhakar Kohale. According to the second lot, Congress rebel Narendra Jichkar was strong in the constituency and was expected to wean away Congress votes to pave a way for Kohale’s victory. BJP leaders admitted that Kohale’s fate depended on the number of votes Jichkar polled. In the end, everybody was proved wrong. Thakre won by only about 5,800 votes against 6,600 votes in 2019 and thus his margin was not as high as expected. Jichkar flopped miserably polling just over 8,100 votes. What nobody expected was that Kohale himself would do well. The former Nagpur South MLA polled over 98,300 votes despite reports of him having a half-hearted campaign in a new constituency where he does not have a house.
NAGPUR SOUTH-WEST
The predictions about this constituency were unanimous and proved correct. Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis was expected to win from this constituency easily albeit with a lesser margin as compared to 2019. Fadnavis trounced Congress’ Prafulla Gudadhe-Patil by about 39,700 votes. His margin in the last election was over 49,000 votes.
NAGPUR EAST
The predictions about this constituency were only partially correct. Sitting BJP MLA Krishna Khopade was expected to win easily from here. Congress had given up on this seat. The reason was that NCP (SP) candidate Duneshwar Pethe was not popular in the constituency. The ticket should have gone to Congress instead. Pollsters predicted that he would come fourth behind Congress rebel Purushottam Hazare and NCP (Ajit) rebel Abha Pande. However, Hazare and Pande flopped miserably polling 11,359 and 9,402 votes while Pethe secured over 48,000 votes giving Khopade a whopping margin of over 1.15 lakh votes.
NAGPUR CENTRAL
Here everybody went wrong including BJP leaders. Everybody predicted an extremely close fight between BJP’s Pravin Datke and Congress’ Bunty Shelke with the margin expected to be below 5,000. Pollsters were divided on who would sail through. The satta bazar initially favoured Datke and then Shelke. Independent candidate Ramesh Punekar was expected to be the decisive factor. However, Datke won by over 11,600 votes defying everybody’s expectations including his party bosses. There are many reasons for Shelke’s decisive defeat. Hindu traders of all castes feared extortion by his supporters and voted for Datke whether they liked him or not. Shelke’s regular antics during campaigning drove away many voters. For many Hindu voters, Shelke went too far in wooing Muslim voters. BJP and its frontals effectively polarized the Hindu voters. Punekar polled a decent 23,302 votes but damaged Congress and BJP equally. In the end, many Halbas, despite being upset with BJP for not fielding somebody from their community, voted for Datke instead of Punekar due to effective persuasion by former BJP MLA Vikas Kumbhare.
NAGPUR SOUTH
Here too everybody went wrong. Like Nagpur Central, all pollsters and satta bazar expected the fight to be a tough one and the margin to be less than 5,000. Opinion was divided on whether sitting BJP MLA Mohan Mate or his Congress rival Girish Pandav would win. Satta bazar gave equal chances to both. In the end, Mate retained his seat by a margin of over 15,600 votes, a margin which nobody including BJP expected. The BJP leaders now say that bumper voting by women due to the ‘Ladki Bahin’ scheme turned the tide in favour of Mate. About 2,000 more women than men voted in this constituency this time. This showed that they wanted BJP to win so that the scheme continued. BJP workers effectively scared them that the stipend would stop if Congress came to power. BJP leaders also say that their election micro-management was far better than that of the Congress. Pandav supporters say that their candidate did not campaign as hard as he should have. Pandav moved around in his constituency in mornings and evenings, taking rest in the afternoon. Mate on the other hand was active round the clock.
